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BuddyFox
6y ago  Corporate Raiders

Greetings fellas and welcome to Q4. This is the first in line of my weekend briefs as I try to identify the opportunities and threats of the financial markets around the world. Most of these I discuss with mr.Gekko as they roll-out during the week. The schedule is usually tight but I will try to be reasonably active here.

I will be clear : I do not like what I see on the market at the moment.

S&P is just 2.5% from the all time high while there is plenty of risk on the table. From Tump and the 2020 elections, Tariff Wars, Brexit, Germany being on the verge of recession... The point is - too little upside , too much downside. I would not want to be a long-only equities portfolio manager right now.

However, those who can go short might get some opportunities here as there are sectors at risk here: most notably banks and tech. By the end of the weekend there will be few picks on long / short side as well as my views on Gold, Bitcoin and maybe something extra.

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BuddyFox
6y ago  Corporate Raiders

Bitcoin - at no mans land. Either a case to complete a Dead Cat Bounce and continue downwards pressure to 7k and lower to 6 OR , an attempt to retake 9k. I am not bullish till I see a close above 10k.

    
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BuddyFox
6y ago  Corporate Raiders

Gold is getting more compressed.
Bullish case for day traders - close above 1520. Bearish case for day traders - close below 1460. Key support - 1440 Accumulation area for a long term hold - 1400-1420

    

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BuddyFox
6y ago  Corporate Raiders

A Chinese and an American trade delegation walk into a bar...

    
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BuddyFox
6y ago  Corporate Raiders

Bitcoin is definitely not looking healthy here. Dead Cat Bounce looks completed and we are ready to test 7 500-600 levels; if that does not hold it can go down to 6-6.5k

    
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BuddyFox
6y ago  Corporate Raiders

US Dollar has been held up in the last months by a rally in the US Treasuries, despite the FED starting a rate cutting cycle. Once it starts pressuring the 97 level I do not see a new bullish case. Dollar needs to go down in order to relieve the trade deficit. Exporting aint cheap with currency this strong.

    
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BuddyFox
6y ago  Corporate Raiders

Potential breakout in Gold is in line with the declining dollar.

    
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BuddyFox
6y ago  Corporate Raiders

Everything is converging at 60. Oil is approaching the overhead resistance. Third test this year

    
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BuddyFox
6y ago  Corporate Raiders

Looking for a high yield stock backed by the Luxembourgish government? Look no further than SES. 5G expansion fears have been overblown in the last few weeks resulting in a big dive. However, support held and this should bounce back to range. Owning this is practically as safe as owning a Luxembourgish bonds except that it has a much higher return.

    

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BuddyFox
6y ago  Corporate Raiders

Greetings Everyone and welcome to the Q1 2020; our passive portfolio did great in 2019 beating S&P by about 3%

Expecting both US and EU Q1 GDPs to slow down, especially given the USD strength weighing on trade and tourism. EM and Chinese equity are relatively cheap and should attract more money in Q1 and through the year. TNX to fall below the market expectations. Our high price of WTI is $72 Sectors I am overweight in Q1 are : Industrial, Material, Energy, Utilities.

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BuddyFox

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Discovered TRP in mid 20s and never looked back.


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