@adam-l I had a lengthy conversation with a retired USAF colonel and USA brigadier general. a few montns back. I pointed out that the US has had two very expensive warhead refurbishment programs since the end of the cold war, necessary to make sure they would even work. I included some details related to expense and shelf life of such weapons. Meanwhile, the russians can barely keep a quarter of their sub fleet working at low tempo, with the damn things catching fire all the time. Their bomber fleet is in abysmal shape, leaving them to rely on the same few dozen bombers in their war and they are starting to lose them too. Finally, there is zero evidence they have had any sort of warhead referb program, instead putting their meager resources on new missile models that blow up all the time in testing.

And then I asked them, "will their bombs even work?" Both answered the same thing without hesitation: probably not.

What little money they have, they are spending it on show, not a viable arsenal. And I'm absolutely certain that's what they are telling Iran to do.

Extra credit: both france and israel are going start running into reliability issues if they don't get cracking on referb in the next 5 to 10 years.