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I'll echo what the other guys have said and add a little more.
The ability to make good decisions (or more accurately, decisions with a higher probability of success) is a skill that can be learned. I've been paid a lot of money in my life teaching people how to do it, and I don't think of myself as a charlatan.
One thing you might try is get yourself a copy of an out-of-print Army manual called FM 101-5. You can probably read it online for free. It's been replaced several times over, but as a generic manual for decision making, it stands up pretty well. Concentrate on the section that deals with Mission Analysis and pair that with the DecMat stuff I gave you in my previous comment.
Hmm... "FM 101-5 Staff Officers' Field Manual, The Staff and combat orders" (1940). I'm skimming through it now, but I pray others find it useful. Who recommended it to you and at what stage of your career? During Officer training or after you were commissioned?Read More