@redpillschool Actions speak louder than words. I sold 3 KG physical the weekend before last. Was pretty pissed that the Indian dealers who were open on Saturday stung me way under spot. The Jews had closed for the sabbath. (The Jewish precious metal dealers are a lot fairer in my experience). Not too bothered now though.

I have also ditched about 400 ounces of silver bullion pool on the way up from $50. Still got about 125 ounces left. Kind of hoping it goes back over $100 but in the end if those ounces drop back down and I don't sell, I am chilled as they are more than paid for.

Silver spikes hard once a decade or two. Then you dump it fast. That's been my strategy. Load up when everyone says its junk, smile at them and buy more when you can. Then when it goes parabolic dump it and it won't matter if you time it right or not, you will be winning by miles and only a greedy man gets burnt.

I would not personally buy silver now. Silver is a commodity people occasionally invest in. Its not like gold, which is a source of value in itself. Silver needs to be needed to be valuable and it gets used up, so much speculation goes into it, making it volatile and prone to squeezes, panic buys and opportunism. Smart men can make money in it and smart men can also get badly burnt.

The risk is that there is a big speculation bubble. ETFs have got ordinary folk into it now. These are the people who will pay for everyone else's profit when it tanks. Once it has clearly tanked the speculators will bug out, taking their losses and the price will fall further.

I might short it now, if I had the balls. This could be the top. It could, of course, be the end of the second wave. in hindsight people mark the charts up so wisely but looking forward, I am not smart enough to say.

Personally I will look for the classic Elliot wave market correction, rebound and then the fall back and then load up. If that takes a few years, then cool. A wiser, braver man could no doubt make more another way but I am not all that wise or brave. I am just a blue collar guy who makes money in precious metals in slow burn ways.

As an amusing red pill aside, the cash in the safe from the 3KG is spinning my lady's hamster wheel up. "You say we have no money for a weekend away, Valentines day is coming....I carried those bars in my handbag to the dealer for you..." I keep telling her the cash (my cash from my investment, made while she was highly dubious about precious metals) will stay there till we can use it to have a weekend in the city and buy at least 4 bars back, while we are there, if not 5 or 6.

@deeplydisturbed Do you think there is a formula? I know there are a lot of formulae out there but soon enough everyone else has them and the bots are happily using them all over. I don't think formulae work well in market re-sets. A market re-set comes when hope, enthusiasm and greed have over run. Then communal fear snaps the market back. The big falls are usually emotional. People suddenly realise value has been exceeded by price and they bail out. The formulae that made the market rise suddenly don't work as people trade on fear not reason.

Guys who short falling markets trade on and add to the fear. I think they are actually reading emotion as well as value. They usually love to boast how they bought it all back cheap next week. They didn't actually think the stock was worthless, they just used the fear to put frightened people's money into their pockets.

I am sure there are ways people check for a strong down trend and check it is because of over valuing to start but then I think you have to go with "feels" (other people's). A lot of people having a justified fear at the same time usually produces hysteria -an irrational and over blown fear.

A very simple method of using other people's rational fear (and yes its too simple for the big guys but it still does work) is to think "where have most people set their stop losses?" People like round numbers. It depends on the stock or commodity but (talking about something I used to know about) gold is usually set by a lot of people at crossing the 200 day moving average. When the falling price breaches that lagging line there will suddenly be a heap of automatic sales. A wise man takes out a short contract when a strong trend approaches that line.

@deeplydisturbed it is true I didn't give any direct answer. I assumed that with all likelihood you already know the answer.

There is no reliable way to say are the people that claim to be so goooood [so called grifters] aren't just pile of shit-talkers.

In your list you have missed

• market manipulation with huge pile of money - prominently didn't work in case of GameStop

• providing some information that is false, the opposite from the insider

The main "fake news" about free insulin involves a viral 2022 fake tweet from an impersonator of pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, falsely announcing insulin was free, causing stock drops and confusion;

One I use is learning the stock. I have chosen speculation stock because you need some sharp drops and rises on company that is legit.

There was this dude that APPARENTLY have leant to use QQQ stock and made his fortine on it.

One of the strategies would be to have hacker insider and know when they.him attack several platforms - real important accounts- with fake news to load the shares right after the drop.

@deeplydisturbed presumably its highly leveraged and that is where you get the huge percentage returns. Spot a strong down trend backed by market fundamentals early and buy highly leveraged contracts to short the market. This works very well in commodities and would work with options in stocks but is very dangerous if you mess up on the trend.

If you get it right it is a self feeding effect all the way down. The bigger you are the better the self feeding effect as people crap themselves with your short sales. JP Morgan in silver is a great example of how to do it over the years. All the small investors pay for JP Morgan's occasional pay day. Right now I think anyone buying silver is going to do this. (I sold half my holding the other day which means what is left is paid for out of profits from the half sold. I won't buy till they have rinsed the market again but I still hope to sell the other half for more, if not its still free silver).