Discussion about the meme market and the latest news on meme stonks.
Thanks again. All good advice. But the moves you mention depend on timing, which again is impossible. It’s gambling.
The barbell strategy Taleb talks about appears to be ironclad.
And yes, many players have a formula - and I too am seeking one. I am going to keep seeking it until I die or get tired of trying.
Feels are good, but for me it has been impossible to detect the tipping points. If I were going on feelz, I would short sell the shit out of the S&P500 - but I have been thinking this for years. And so far, no pop.
This is not the place for such discussions, and neither is r/wallstreetbets. But I’ll find it.
@deeplydisturbed Do you think there is a formula? I know there are a lot of formulae out there but soon enough everyone else has them and the bots are happily using them all over. I don't think formulae work well in market re-sets. A market re-set comes when hope, enthusiasm and greed have over run. Then communal fear snaps the market back. The big falls are usually emotional. People suddenly realise value has been exceeded by price and they bail out. The formulae that made the market rise suddenly don't work as people trade on fear not reason.
Guys who short falling markets trade on and add to the fear. I think they are actually reading emotion as well as value. They usually love to boast how they bought it all back cheap next week. They didn't actually think the stock was worthless, they just used the fear to put frightened people's money into their pockets.
I am sure there are ways people check for a strong down trend and check it is because of over valuing to start but then I think you have to go with "feels" (other people's). A lot of people having a justified fear at the same time usually produces hysteria -an irrational and over blown fear.
A very simple method of using other people's rational fear (and yes its too simple for the big guys but it still does work) is to think "where have most people set their stop losses?" People like round numbers. It depends on the stock or commodity but (talking about something I used to know about) gold is usually set by a lot of people at crossing the 200 day moving average. When the falling price breaches that lagging line there will suddenly be a heap of automatic sales. A wise man takes out a short contract when a strong trend approaches that line.
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Thanks for this.
What I am seeking is a specific formula.
“Spotting a strong down trend” is essentially market timing and that is impossible to do consistently.
He has a combination approach of safe investments and (i think) way out of the money puts. But puts on what? I don’t think he does leveraged ETF’s.
He also does this in a way that the strategy is in play all day every day. So when a pop comes, he wins.
That’s not possible with just puts. I’ have modeled this several times and I either run out of money in my “simulation” or when it does pop, I don’t recover my inputs (losses).
@deeplydisturbed it is true I didn't give any direct answer. I assumed that with all likelihood you already know the answer.
There is no reliable way to say are the people that claim to be so goooood [so called grifters] aren't just pile of shit-talkers.
In your list you have missed
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market manipulation with huge pile of money - prominently didn't work in case of GameStop
- providing some information that is false, the opposite from the insider
The main "fake news" about free insulin involves a viral 2022 fake tweet from an impersonator of pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, falsely announcing insulin was free, causing stock drops and confusion;
One I use is learning the stock. I have chosen speculation stock because you need some sharp drops and rises on company that is legit.
There was this dude that APPARENTLY have leant to use QQQ stock and made his fortine on it.
One of the strategies would be to have hacker insider and know when they.him attack several platforms - real important accounts- with fake news to load the shares right after the drop.
Read More@deeplydisturbed Have any hedge funds beaten the market long term? Renaissance claims its employee only fund has earned gigantic returns since the 80s yet its funds offered to outside investors haven't done so great. Simons's CIA background makes me think it is a front for drug and arms sales money. Other hedge funds do well for a while then sink to mediocrity. Larry Mendelson isn't well known but did fantastic as an individual investor , well enough to take control of Heico.
@deeplydisturbed presumably its highly leveraged and that is where you get the huge percentage returns. Spot a strong down trend backed by market fundamentals early and buy highly leveraged contracts to short the market. This works very well in commodities and would work with options in stocks but is very dangerous if you mess up on the trend.
If you get it right it is a self feeding effect all the way down. The bigger you are the better the self feeding effect as people crap themselves with your short sales. JP Morgan in silver is a great example of how to do it over the years. All the small investors pay for JP Morgan's occasional pay day. Right now I think anyone buying silver is going to do this. (I sold half my holding the other day which means what is left is paid for out of profits from the half sold. I won't buy till they have rinsed the market again but I still hope to sell the other half for more, if not its still free silver).
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Thanks, but that doesn’t answer my question.
As of today, the two ways to beat the markets (reliably, not just luck) are:
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Have inside informations (Hello Congress - looking at YOU)
- Security selection (AKA Stock picking)
But hedge funds have their ways and it is my hope that one person here might give me a hint or a clue. I am trying to build a model to enhance my performance in the markets. getting 20% returns is great, and pretty hard to do, but there are better ways for much bigger gains.
which s&p stock rose the most from the Nov 2019
-Nvidia (NVDA): Rose approximately 15.8x (a ~1,480% increase). In November 2019, Nvidia's split-adjusted price was roughly $12.10. By January 2026, the stock reached approximately $191.10.
-Tesla (TSLA): Rose approximately 15.4x (a ~1,440% increase). Tesla traded at a split-adjusted price of about $28.00 in November 2019 and stands at roughly $432.96 in early 2026. While Tesla led the index in 2020 with a record 743% gain, Nvidia’s consistent growth since 2023 has allowed it to narrow and eventually overtake Tesla's total multiple gain.
-Super Micro Computer (SMCI): While it only joined the S&P 500 in March 2024, its growth since 2019 has been even more extreme, rising over 1,400% in the five years leading into late 2025.
Was it luck, analysis or plenty of automated microtransactions and taking suckers for a ride. I have one speculation stock. It has wild rides. If I would trade it more carefully I would get out of it 500% in the last 2 y easily
Read MoreOkay men, here is a test for this tribe:
You should be familiar with Nassim Taleb and his market shorting strategy. Legendary options investor, and Hedge Fund manager. He claims to have earned 4,000% returns during the last big downturn in the S&P500.
Who here knows anything about the specifics of his approach. Here’s all I know:
- It is NOT just a collection of out-of-the-money puts. I modeled it and it fails in the long run
- It incorporates barbell strategy
- It involves “fat tails”
- It DOES involve put options
- It MAYBE involves covered calls
What else do we know?